Publications & working papers
Yang Lu
Associate Professor·Mathematics & Statistics·Concordia University
I build statistical and econometric models for insurance and finance applications.
Updated June 2026
Time series and count data modeling
My interest in time series is mainly in two areas: affine processes (especially those that are integer-valued, noncausal, or nonstationary), as well as determinantal point processes.
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—Working
Risk analysis of random sets with applications to basket derivatives
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—Working
Pricing and hedging in a noncausal Cauchy AR(1) model
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—Submitted
Ultra long run term structure models
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—Submitted
Linear-type conditional specifications for multivariate count variables
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—Working
Backtesting Expected Shortfall: accounting for both duration and severity using bivariate orthogonal polynomials
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—Working
A simple estimator of the correlation kernel matrix of a determinantal point process
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—Working
Corrigendum and comments to Tang & Tang (2023), “The Poisson binomial distribution — old and new”
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—Working
Near-unit-root theory for affine processes
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Markov determinantal point process for dynamic random sets
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Estimation of the intercept parameter in an integrated Galton–Watson process
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2026
Partial observability of implied volatility matrices: identification and covolatilities filtering
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2026
Backtesting expectile: disentangling unconditional coverage and independence properties
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2025
SIR model with stochastic transmission
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2025
Mixed causal–noncausal count process
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2025
Forecasting natural disaster frequencies using nonstationary count time series models
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2023
Noncausal affine processes with applications to derivative pricing
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2021
Noncausal counting processes: a queuing perspective
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2021
The predictive distributions of thinning-based count processes
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2020
A simple parameter-driven binary time series model
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2019
Negative binomial autoregressive process with stochastic intensity
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2019
Bivariate integer-autoregressive process with an application to mutual fund flows
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2019
Least impulse response estimator for stress test exercises
Non-life insurance
Ratemaking, credibility theory, and random-effects models for property and casualty insurance.
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Modeling and a posteriori ratemaking for multiple perils with the Wishart–gamma random effects model
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2025
Accounting for model risk in property and casualty insurance
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2025
An observation-driven state-space count model for experience rating
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2024
Cyber risk modeling: a discrete multivariate count process approach
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2024
Managing weather risk with a neural network-based index insurance
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2023
Hierarchical random-effects model for the insurance pricing of vehicles belonging to a fleet
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2023
A simple Bayesian state-space approach to the collective risk models
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2021
On the ordering of credibility factors
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2021
Wishart–gamma random effects models with applications to nonlife insurance
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2021
Dynamic Bayesian ratemaking: a Markov chain approximation approach
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2019
Flexible (panel) regression models for bivariate count–continuous data with an insurance application
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2018
Dynamic frailty count process in insurance: a unified framework for estimation, pricing, and forecasting
Life insurance
Longevity, mortality, long-term care, and competing-risks modeling.
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—Working
Longevity and long-term care
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—Working
Modeling longevity and disability with generalized autoregressive score models
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2023
Modelling mortality: a Bayesian factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach
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2021
Coherent mortality forecasting for less developed countries
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2020
The distribution of unobserved heterogeneity in competing risks models
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2019
Modeling cause-of-death mortality using hierarchical Archimedean copula
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2019
A forecast reconciliation approach to cause-of-death mortality modeling
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2018
A Bayesian non-parametric model for small population mortality
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2017
Broken-heart, common life, heterogeneity: analyzing the spousal mortality dependence
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2017
Coherent forecasting of mortality rates: a sparse vector-autoregression approach
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2015
Love and death: a Freund model with frailty