Publications & working papers

Yang Lu

Associate Professor·Mathematics & Statistics·Concordia University

I build statistical and econometric models for insurance and finance applications.

Updated September 2026

Yang Lu by a mountain river
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01Time series & count data

Time series and count data modeling

My interest in time series is mainly in two areas: affine processes (especially those that are integer-valued, noncausal, or nonstationary), as well as determinantal point processes.

  1. —Working

    Consistent intercept estimation and inference for unit-root INAR(2) processes

    With Márton Ispány

  2. —Working

    Weighted least squares in integrated Galton–Watson processes: intercept inference and optimal weights

    Single author

  3. —Working

    Risk analysis of random sets with applications to basket derivatives

    With Christian Gouriéroux & Alain Monfort

    Revise & resubmit, Journal of Financial Econometrics Working paper version ↗
  4. —Submitted

    Ultra long run term structure models

    With Christian Gouriéroux & Alain Monfort

  5. —Submitted

    Linear-type conditional specifications for multivariate count variables

    With Wei Sun

  6. —Working

    Backtesting Expected Shortfall: accounting for both duration and severity using bivariate orthogonal polynomials

    With Sullivan Hué & Christophe Hurlin

  7. —Working

    A simple estimator of the correlation kernel matrix of a determinantal point process

    With Christian Gouriéroux

  8. —Working

    Corrigendum and comments to Tang & Tang (2023), “The Poisson binomial distribution — old and new”

    With Christian Gouriéroux

  9. —Working

    Near-unit-root theory for affine processes

    With Gael Anne, Xuewen Yu & Xiaowen Zhou

  10. —

    Pricing and hedging in a noncausal Cauchy AR(1) model

    With Caleb Danquah & Patrice Gaillardetz

    Forthcoming, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics
  11. —

    Markov determinantal point process for dynamic random sets

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Forthcoming, Journal of Time Series Analysis DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  12. —

    Estimation of the intercept parameter in an integrated Galton–Watson process

    Single author

    Forthcoming, Journal of Time Series Analysis Working paper version ↗
  13. 2026

    Partial observability of implied volatility matrices: identification and covolatilities filtering

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Mathematical Finance, 36(1), 48–66 Open access ↗ Working paper version ↗
  14. 2026

    Backtesting expectile: disentangling unconditional coverage and independence properties

    With Jesus Armando de Ita Solis, Mélina Mailhot & Xiaochun Meng

    Risk Sciences, art. 100051 Open access ↗
  15. 2025

    SIR model with stochastic transmission

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Canadian Journal of Statistics, 53(2) DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  16. 2025

    Mixed causal–noncausal count process

    With Jian Pei & Fukang Zhu

  17. 2025

    Forecasting natural disaster frequencies using nonstationary count time series models

    With Jian Pei

    Statistical Papers, 66(3) DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  18. 2023

    Noncausal affine processes with applications to derivative pricing

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Mathematical Finance, 33(3), 766–796 Open access ↗ Working paper version ↗
  19. 2021

    Noncausal counting processes: a queuing perspective

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Electronic Journal of Statistics, 15(2), 3852–3891 Open access ↗
  20. 2021

    The predictive distributions of thinning-based count processes

    Single author

    Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 48(1), 42–67 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  21. 2020

    A simple parameter-driven binary time series model

    Single author

    Journal of Forecasting, 39(2), 187–199 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  22. 2019

    Negative binomial autoregressive process with stochastic intensity

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Journal of Time Series Analysis, 40(2), 225–247 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  23. 2019

    Bivariate integer-autoregressive process with an application to mutual fund flows

    With Serge Darolles, Gaëlle Le Fol & Ran Sun

    Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 173, 181–203 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  24. 2019

    Least impulse response estimator for stress test exercises

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Journal of Banking & Finance, 103, 62–77 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
02Non-life insurance

Non-life insurance

Ratemaking, credibility theory, and random-effects models for property and casualty insurance.

  1. —

    Modeling and a posteriori ratemaking for multiple perils with the Wishart–gamma random effects model

    With Jaeyoun Ahn, Minjeong Park & Minji Park

    Forthcoming, North American Actuarial Journal DOI ↗
  2. 2025

    Accounting for model risk in property and casualty insurance

    With Hanieh Amjadian & Patrice Gaillardetz

    Variance CAS grant DOI ↗
  3. 2025

    An observation-driven state-space count model for experience rating

    With Jaeyoun Ahn, Himchan Jeong & Mario Wüthrich

    Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 125, art. 103149 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  4. 2024

    Cyber risk modeling: a discrete multivariate count process approach

    With Wenjun Zhu & Jinggong Zhang

    Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2024(6), 625–655 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  5. 2024

    Managing weather risk with a neural network-based index insurance

    With Zhanhui Chen, Jinggong Zhang & Wenjun Zhu

    Management Science, 70(7), 4306–4327 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  6. 2023

    Hierarchical random-effects model for the insurance pricing of vehicles belonging to a fleet

    With Georges Dionne & Denise Desjardins

    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 38(2), 242–259 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  7. 2023

    A simple Bayesian state-space approach to the collective risk models

    With Jaeyoun Ahn & Himchan Jeong

    Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2023(5), 509–529 Working paper version ↗
  8. 2021

    On the ordering of credibility factors

    With Jaeyoun Ahn & Himchan Jeong

    Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 101(B), 626–638 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  9. 2021

    Wishart–gamma random effects models with applications to nonlife insurance

    With Michel Denuit

    Journal of Risk and Insurance, 88(2), 443–481 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  10. 2021

    Dynamic Bayesian ratemaking: a Markov chain approximation approach

    With Hong Li & Wenjun Zhu

    North American Actuarial Journal, 25(2) SOA grant DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  11. 2019

    Flexible (panel) regression models for bivariate count–continuous data with an insurance application

    Single author

    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 182(4), 1503–1521 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  12. 2018

    Dynamic frailty count process in insurance: a unified framework for estimation, pricing, and forecasting

    Single author

    Journal of Risk and Insurance, 85(4), 1083–1102 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗ Online appendix ↗
03Life insurance

Life insurance

Longevity, mortality, long-term care, and competing-risks modeling.

  1. —Working

    Longevity and long-term care

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Revise & resubmit, Journal of Econometrics Working paper version ↗
  2. —Working

    Modeling longevity and disability with generalized autoregressive score models

    With Pengyu Wei & Mengyi Xu

    Revise & resubmit, North American Actuarial Journal Working paper version ↗
  3. 2023

    Modelling mortality: a Bayesian factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach

    With Dan Zhu

    ASTIN Bulletin, 53(1), 29–61 Open access ↗
  4. 2021

    Coherent mortality forecasting for less developed countries

    With Hong Li & Pintao Lyu

    Risks, 9(9), 151 DOI ↗
  5. 2020

    The distribution of unobserved heterogeneity in competing risks models

    Single author

    Statistical Papers, 61(2), 681–696 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  6. 2019

    Modeling cause-of-death mortality using hierarchical Archimedean copula

    With Hong Li

    Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2019(3), 247–272 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  7. 2019

    A forecast reconciliation approach to cause-of-death mortality modeling

    With Hong Li, Han Li & Anastasios Panagiotelis

    Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 86, 122–133 DOI ↗
  8. 2018

    A Bayesian non-parametric model for small population mortality

    With Hong Li

    Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2018(7), 605–628 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  9. 2017

    Broken-heart, common life, heterogeneity: analyzing the spousal mortality dependence

    Single author

    ASTIN Bulletin, 47(3), 837–874 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  10. 2017

    Coherent forecasting of mortality rates: a sparse vector-autoregression approach

    With Hong Li

    ASTIN Bulletin, 47(2), 563–600 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗
  11. 2015

    Love and death: a Freund model with frailty

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 63, 191–203 DOI ↗ Working paper version ↗