Publications & working papers

Yang Lu

Associate Professor·Mathematics & Statistics·Concordia University

I build statistical and econometric models for insurance and finance applications.

Updated June 2026

Yang Lu by a mountain river
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01Time series & count data

Time series and count data modeling

My interest in time series is mainly in two areas: affine processes (especially those that are integer-valued, noncausal, or nonstationary), as well as determinantal point processes.

  1. Working

    Risk analysis of random sets with applications to basket derivatives

    With Christian Gouriéroux & Alain Monfort

    Revise & resubmit, Journal of Financial Econometrics Working paper version
  2. Working

    Pricing and hedging in a noncausal Cauchy AR(1) model

    With Caleb Danquah & Patrice Gaillardetz

    Revise & resubmit, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics
  3. Submitted

    Ultra long run term structure models

    With Christian Gouriéroux & Alain Monfort

  4. Submitted

    Linear-type conditional specifications for multivariate count variables

    With Wei Sun

  5. Working

    Backtesting Expected Shortfall: accounting for both duration and severity using bivariate orthogonal polynomials

    With Sullivan Hué & Christophe Hurlin

  6. Working

    A simple estimator of the correlation kernel matrix of a determinantal point process

    With Christian Gouriéroux

  7. Working

    Corrigendum and comments to Tang & Tang (2023), “The Poisson binomial distribution — old and new”

    With Christian Gouriéroux

  8. Working

    Near-unit-root theory for affine processes

    With Gael Anne, Xuewen Yu & Xiaowen Zhou

  9. Markov determinantal point process for dynamic random sets

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Forthcoming, Journal of Time Series Analysis DOI Working paper version
  10. Estimation of the intercept parameter in an integrated Galton–Watson process

    Single author

    Forthcoming, Journal of Time Series Analysis Working paper version
  11. 2026

    Partial observability of implied volatility matrices: identification and covolatilities filtering

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Mathematical Finance, 36(1), 48–66 Open access Working paper version
  12. 2026

    Backtesting expectile: disentangling unconditional coverage and independence properties

    With Jesus Armando de Ita Solis, Mélina Mailhot & Xiaochun Meng

    Risk Sciences, art. 100051 Open access
  13. 2025

    SIR model with stochastic transmission

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Canadian Journal of Statistics, 53(2) DOI Working paper version
  14. 2025

    Mixed causal–noncausal count process

    With Jian Pei & Fukang Zhu

  15. 2025

    Forecasting natural disaster frequencies using nonstationary count time series models

    With Jian Pei

    Statistical Papers, 66(3) DOI Working paper version
  16. 2023

    Noncausal affine processes with applications to derivative pricing

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Mathematical Finance, 33(3), 766–796 Open access Working paper version
  17. 2021

    Noncausal counting processes: a queuing perspective

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Electronic Journal of Statistics, 15(2), 3852–3891 Open access
  18. 2021

    The predictive distributions of thinning-based count processes

    Single author

    Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 48(1), 42–67 DOI Working paper version
  19. 2020

    A simple parameter-driven binary time series model

    Single author

    Journal of Forecasting, 39(2), 187–199 DOI Working paper version
  20. 2019

    Negative binomial autoregressive process with stochastic intensity

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Journal of Time Series Analysis, 40(2), 225–247 DOI Working paper version
  21. 2019

    Bivariate integer-autoregressive process with an application to mutual fund flows

    With Serge Darolles, Gaëlle Le Fol & Ran Sun

    Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 173, 181–203 DOI Working paper version
  22. 2019

    Least impulse response estimator for stress test exercises

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Journal of Banking & Finance, 103, 62–77 DOI Working paper version
02Non-life insurance

Non-life insurance

Ratemaking, credibility theory, and random-effects models for property and casualty insurance.

  1. Modeling and a posteriori ratemaking for multiple perils with the Wishart–gamma random effects model

    With Jaeyoun Ahn, Minjeong Park & Minji Park

    Forthcoming, North American Actuarial Journal DOI
  2. 2025

    Accounting for model risk in property and casualty insurance

    With Hanieh Amjadian & Patrice Gaillardetz

    Variance CAS grant DOI
  3. 2025

    An observation-driven state-space count model for experience rating

    With Jaeyoun Ahn, Himchan Jeong & Mario Wüthrich

    Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 125, art. 103149 DOI Working paper version
  4. 2024

    Cyber risk modeling: a discrete multivariate count process approach

    With Wenjun Zhu & Jinggong Zhang

    Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2024(6), 625–655 DOI Working paper version
  5. 2024

    Managing weather risk with a neural network-based index insurance

    With Zhanhui Chen, Jinggong Zhang & Wenjun Zhu

    Management Science, 70(7), 4306–4327 DOI Working paper version
  6. 2023

    Hierarchical random-effects model for the insurance pricing of vehicles belonging to a fleet

    With Georges Dionne & Denise Desjardins

    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 38(2), 242–259 DOI Working paper version
  7. 2023

    A simple Bayesian state-space approach to the collective risk models

    With Jaeyoun Ahn & Himchan Jeong

    Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2023(5), 509–529 Working paper version
  8. 2021

    On the ordering of credibility factors

    With Jaeyoun Ahn & Himchan Jeong

    Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 101(B), 626–638 DOI Working paper version
  9. 2021

    Wishart–gamma random effects models with applications to nonlife insurance

    With Michel Denuit

    Journal of Risk and Insurance, 88(2), 443–481 DOI Working paper version
  10. 2021

    Dynamic Bayesian ratemaking: a Markov chain approximation approach

    With Hong Li & Wenjun Zhu

    North American Actuarial Journal, 25(2) SOA grant DOI Working paper version
  11. 2019

    Flexible (panel) regression models for bivariate count–continuous data with an insurance application

    Single author

    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 182(4), 1503–1521 DOI Working paper version
  12. 2018

    Dynamic frailty count process in insurance: a unified framework for estimation, pricing, and forecasting

    Single author

    Journal of Risk and Insurance, 85(4), 1083–1102 DOI Working paper version Online appendix
03Life insurance

Life insurance

Longevity, mortality, long-term care, and competing-risks modeling.

  1. Working

    Longevity and long-term care

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Revise & resubmit, Journal of Econometrics Working paper version
  2. Working

    Modeling longevity and disability with generalized autoregressive score models

    With Pengyu Wei & Mengyi Xu

    Revise & resubmit, North American Actuarial Journal Working paper version
  3. 2023

    Modelling mortality: a Bayesian factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach

    With Dan Zhu

    ASTIN Bulletin, 53(1), 29–61 Open access
  4. 2021

    Coherent mortality forecasting for less developed countries

    With Hong Li & Pintao Lyu

    Risks, 9(9), 151 DOI
  5. 2020

    The distribution of unobserved heterogeneity in competing risks models

    Single author

    Statistical Papers, 61(2), 681–696 DOI Working paper version
  6. 2019

    Modeling cause-of-death mortality using hierarchical Archimedean copula

    With Hong Li

    Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2019(3), 247–272 DOI Working paper version
  7. 2019

    A forecast reconciliation approach to cause-of-death mortality modeling

    With Hong Li, Han Li & Anastasios Panagiotelis

    Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 86, 122–133 DOI
  8. 2018

    A Bayesian non-parametric model for small population mortality

    With Hong Li

    Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2018(7), 605–628 DOI Working paper version
  9. 2017

    Broken-heart, common life, heterogeneity: analyzing the spousal mortality dependence

    Single author

    ASTIN Bulletin, 47(3), 837–874 DOI Working paper version
  10. 2017

    Coherent forecasting of mortality rates: a sparse vector-autoregression approach

    With Hong Li

    ASTIN Bulletin, 47(2), 563–600 DOI Working paper version
  11. 2015

    Love and death: a Freund model with frailty

    With Christian Gouriéroux

    Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 63, 191–203 DOI Working paper version